2 posts tagged “models”

Why the Economy Is As Undependable As the Weather

Isn't it interesting that the same people who laugh at science fiction listen to weather forecasts and economists?
- Kelvin Throop III, grandson of a likely fictional character of disputed origin, possibly Canadian (in other words, origin uncertain)

No matter where in the world people live, they all complain of the inaccuracies of their weather forecasters.

No matter where in the world people live, they are also feeling the effects of the economic downturn, despite the accumulated expertise of noted economists.

Why are weather forecasts so often wrong? In my country, Environment Canada (the government weather service) claims it is right 89 percent of the time. And it is, if you count only forecasts made within the previous three hours of any given time.

Weather and climate may follow general patterns, but they do not adhere to weather charts nor necessarily follow computerized climate models. As technologically advanced as we are in the 21st century, our meteorologists and climatologists know with certainty as much about the accuracy of their forecasts as doctors know about the human body. Which is very little despite their claims to the contrary.

Have you ever taken the time to watch dust moving around in a puddle or fog swirling on a summer morning? They defy accurate description. I have watched waves on the lake near where I used to live approach each other from opposite directions, then continue on by passing through each other as if the other weren't there at all. Shouldn't they cancel each other out? They don't. Waves are an effect of weather above them.

The economy of a country depends on so many factors that no one person or computer can keep track of them all. The current recession began when unethical bank officers granted mortgages to people who could not afford to pay them back, even though the interest rates were below the prime lending rate. The banks then sold these "loser" papers to other banks around the world, combined with good mortgage papers. Somebody had to pay. Turns out we all did.

Remember the dotcom collapses several years ago where internet startup companies collected fortunes with little more than a dream to sell? Or the Worldcom and Enron collapses (among others) where their executives stated profits and sales increases in the 30 percent range when they were only a fraction of that?

A great deal of the economy of a country depends on the honesty and integrity of those who move money around it. Stripped to its essentials, an economy functions on the greed and honesty of those with money. In the end, greed always dominates.

So weather forecasts are based on factors we don't even understand, while economic forecasts depend on the integrity of those with money. Is it any wonder that neither can be depended upon?

As for science fiction, some of it from the past may be seen in technology today?

Yet that's not the point of Throop's quote. His point is that many people will believe forecasts created by those who claim to be experts, while deriding technological and cultural forecasts from sources such as writers of science fiction. Science fiction writers don't claim to be experts.

Anyone who claims to have expertise in any subject will find followers provided that they can back up their predictions with good stories.

Weren't snake oil salesmen of the past successful because they told the best stories? Are our biggest advertisers today not successful because they tell the best lies that appeal to our vanity and need for social status? Didn't our ancestors believe the tribal chiefs and medicine men and women who told the best stories?

We tend to believe those who tell the most convincing stories, whether the stories have truth and validity or not.

So it rains on our parades and our retirement nestegg stocks tank. Our lives remain determined largely by our beliefs.

Bill Allin
Turning It Around: Causes and Cures for Today's Epidemic Social Problems, a guidebook for teachers and parents who want to grow children who believe what they can depend on.
Learn more at http://billallin.com 

It shocked me. It disgusted me. I wanted to hurt someone.

The headline screamed out from the cover of Toronto Life magazine: Lock
Up Your Daughters. Surely the magazine used a metaphor to make its
point. But no, the headline on the article itself read "Bring Me Your
Daughters." The feudal Dark Ages had returned.

As Toronto Life is not inclined toward promoting the businesses of
pimps--at least of the kind that markets prostitutes--it had to refer to
the next worst fate for young girls: the quest for top models.

"Top" meaning what? Those who will fetch top dollars at fashion shows
that use raised runways, exotic lightning and sometimes even dry ice
"smoke." Fetch top dollars for themselves? Hardly. Fetch the big bucks
for their managers. The runway pimps.

Before the article even began, enlarged font letters in bold print told
of "the champagne-soaked world of giddy teens [and] back-stabbing
agents." The titles began to mean something. It wasn't good.

This world was what the magazine warned parents of teenage girls to
avoid. In short, the life of Paris Hilton, only without the enormous
fame, publicity and public relations managers.

How, pray tell, did the magazine intend for parents to avoid their
daughters wanting to adopt this life? The article didn't say. It went on
to describe the professional activities of "über-agent" Elmer Olsen
whose clients have become A-list models around the world. The man
creates Paris Hiltons of the runway.

Why would any young woman want to become a "top model"?

When they were young children (under the age of 11), their parents
wanted to protect them from the ugly world of modelling, of drugs and
alcohol, of having no home life or roots, of associating with people who
wanted to pimp them as modelling whores. The parents kept information
about this career choice from the kids. That and a whole lot more.

While that practice became a habit ("They're still too young!"), the
children grew into adolescence. Throughout the history of our species,
our young were trained to cope with the rigours of the adult world when
they were little. By the time they reached adolescence, they were
considered to be adults, with almost all adult responsibilities, but
still retaining the tie to parents who could guide them when they needed
support or answers to tough questions. The parent-child psychological
umbilical stretched, but it wasn't cut completely.

Today's parents want their children to be independent, so they aren't
always momma's boys or girls, but they don't want to enlighten the kids
about what the real world they will soon face is like. Consequently they
don't have occasions to discuss either reasons for avoiding risky
lifestyles and habits or the coping skills needed to get out of trouble
if they should find themselves in over their heads.

All the kids see of Paris Hilton is glamour, popularity, expensive
clothing, "slightly" bad behaviour that seems like fun, and lots of
"friends." To an adolescent, especially one who is socially inept
because his or her parents have kept them in the dark about the
realities of life around them, having friends is just about the most
important thing in their lives.

They don't know that the easiest kind of friends to find are those who
will put their lives most at risk. They don't know the dark side of fame
and glamour, the enormous self destruction of drugs, the alienating
effects of alcohol abuse, the devastation of gambling addiction. All
they know is what they see. And it looks like fun from their point of
view..

Lock up your teenage daughters? No, not necessary. Just stop treating
your young children like dolls that will never grow up and teach them
the skills and the knowledge they need to know about life. Childhood is
when kids learn about adulthood without having to act it out.

It's the job of parents to teach, not to protect their children against
the real world. Those who want to protect their kids, who want to
maintain their innocence as long as possible, ultimately neglect their
primary role in life.

Innocent children grow into ignorant adults. Look around you. Don't do
it.

Bill Allin
Turning It Around: Causes and Cures for Today's Epidemic Social
Problems, an easy-to-read book for parents and grandparents, along with
guides for parents and teachers, about what young children need to know
and when to teach it.
Learn more at http://billallin.com